12월15일 (로이터) - 다음은 미국 연방준비제도가 발표한 미국 경제 전망입니다.
(All figures Q4 over Q4, except jobless rate, which is Q4 average, and all f
igures in percent)
MEDIAN VIEW OF APPROPRIATE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (in percent)
DEC SEPT JUNE MARCH DEC'15
End-2016 0.625 0.625 0.875 0.875 1.375
End-2017 1.375 1.125 1.625 1.875 2.375
End-2018 2.125 1.875 2.375 3.000 3.250
End-2019 2.875 2.625 N/A N/A N/A
Longer-run 3.000 2.900 3.000 3.250 3.500
MEDIAN
Real GDP 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer Run
Dec 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8
Sept 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8
Unemployment
Dec 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.8
Sept 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.8
PCE Price Index
Dec 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
Sept 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
Core PCE index
Dec 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 N/A
Sept 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 N/A
CENTRAL TENDENCY FORECASTS
Real GDP 2016 2017 2018 2019 Longer Run
Dec 1.8 to 1.9 1.9 to 2.3 1.8 to 2.2 1.8 to 2.0 1.8 to 2.0
Sept 1.7 to 1.9 1.9 to 2.2 1.8 to 2.1 1.7 to 2.0 1.7 to 2.0
Unemployment
Dec 4.7 to 4.8 4.5 to 4.6 4.3 to 4.7 4.3 to 4.8 4.7 to 5.0
Sept 4.7 to 4.9 4.5 to 4.7 4.4 to 4.7 4.4 to 4.8 4.7 to 5.0
PCE Price Index
Dec 1.5 1.7 to 2.0 1.9 to 2.0 2.0 to 2.1 2.0
Sept 1.2 to 1.4 1.7 to 1.9 1.8 to 2.0 1.9 to 2.0 2.0
Core PCE index
Dec 1.7 to 1.8 1.8 to 1.9 1.9 to 2.0 2.0 N/A
Sept 1.6 to 1.8 1.7 to 1.9 1.9 to 2.0 2.0 N/A
Notes:
N/A-not available
Prior forecasts were released on Sept. 21, 2016. The U.S. central bank has said
the longer-run projections for growth and unemployment may be interpreted as est
imates of rates that appear sustainable in the long run. The long-run inflation
projection may be interpreted as the rate Fed officials see as consistent with t
heir dual objectives of maximum sustainable employment and price stability.
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