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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 3.5x - 3.9x | 3.7x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 3.0x - 3.3x | 3.2x |
| Fair Value | ¥6.77 - ¥7.37 | ¥7.07 |
| Upside | -29.7% - -23.5% | -26.6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Xinjiang East Universe Gas Co.Ltd. | 603706 | SHSE:603706 |
| Shaanxi Provincial Natural Gas Co.,Ltd | 2267 | SZSE:002267 |
| Senton Energy Co.,Ltd. | 1331 | SZSE:001331 |
| Nanjing Public Utilities Development Co., Ltd. | 421 | SZSE:000421 |
| Kunlun Energy Company Limited | 135 | SEHK:135 |
| Xinjiang Haoyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. | 2700 | SZSE:002700 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 603706 | 2267 | 1331 | 421 | 135 | 2700 | |||
| SHSE:603706 | SZSE:002267 | SZSE:001331 | SZSE:000421 | SEHK:135 | SZSE:002700 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 23.5% | -3.4% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 12.9% | 10.1% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 14.3% | -2.7% | 10.1% | -12.2% | 10.5% | 16.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 8.5% | 21.5% | 14.5% | -29.7% | 5.5% | 16.4% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 18.1% | 8.3% | 1.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 14.1% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 16.1% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 11.9% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 20.3% | 9.3% | -1.7% | 0.6% | 6.4% | 16.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 22.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | -1.0% | 6.4% | 13.6% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.25x | 1.30x | 0.28x | 1.35x | 0.27x | 5.13x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.2x | 11.7x | 2560.4x | -131.5x | 4.2x | 37.6x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.73x | 1.05x | 0.48x | 0.70x | 0.34x | 5.82x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.27x | 1.30x | 2.25x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 2.28x | 3.13x | 4.74x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 3.53x | 3.72x | 3.90x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 684 | 684 | 684 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,416 | 2,543 | 2,670 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 472 | 472 | 472 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,888 | 3,015 | 3,142 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 413.6 | 413.6 | 413.6 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 6.98 | 7.29 | 7.60 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.98 | 7.29 | 7.60 | 9.63 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | -27.5% | -24.3% | -21.1% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 603706 | 2267 | 1331 | 421 | 135 | 2700 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,850 | 11,171 | 1,445 | 6,658 | 50,704 | 3,511 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 818 | 890 | 1,255 | 1,514 | 45,092 | 478 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 71 | 565 | 37 | 866 | 14,988 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (161) | (3,306) | (211) | (4,441) | (24,279) | (1) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (123) | (301) | 0 | (1,135) | (23,686) | (6) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,454 | 9,019 | 2,526 | 3,462 | 62,819 | 3,983 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 189.4 | 1,112.1 | 201.6 | 576.1 | 8,658.8 | 413.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 18.24 | 8.11 | 12.53 | 6.01 | 7.25 | 9.63 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 18.24 | 8.11 | 12.53 | 6.01 | 7.78 | 9.63 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | |