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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 14.8x - 16.3x | 15.5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 2.8x - 3.1x | 3.0x |
| Fair Value | ¥7.65 - ¥8.33 | ¥7.99 |
| Upside | 41.9% - 54.5% | 48.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Guangzhou Hangxin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd. | 300424 | SZSE:300424 |
| Chongqing road & bridge co.,ltd | 600106 | SHSE:600106 |
| China Railway Materials Company Limited | 927 | SZSE:000927 |
| Zhuhai Winbase International Chemical Tank Terminal Co.,Ltd | 2492 | SZSE:002492 |
| Rizhao Port Jurong Co., Ltd. | 6117 | SEHK:6117 |
| Hunan Investment Group Co.,Ltd. | 548 | SZSE:000548 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 300424 | 600106 | 927 | 2492 | 6117 | 548 | ||
| SZSE:300424 | SHSE:600106 | SZSE:000927 | SZSE:002492 | SEHK:6117 | SZSE:000548 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 22.2% | -16.4% | NM- | 10.5% | 6.8% | 29.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | NM- | -21.7% | -18.6% | -1.8% | 10.1% | 64.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 47.1% | -12.5% | -29.9% | -37.7% | -0.3% | 82.1% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 2.7% | 65.7% | 2.1% | 30.5% | 34.7% | 16.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 3.7% | 69.7% | 1.6% | 34.8% | 35.2% | 15.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.2% | 62.3% | 1.3% | 29.0% | 34.2% | 15.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.3% | 61.8% | 1.3% | 20.6% | 34.2% | 15.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.82x | 31.54x | 0.35x | 4.25x | 1.06x | 1.46x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 34.5x | 47.7x | 19.6x | 10.2x | 2.2x | 8.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 65.5x | 51.1x | 30.1x | 20.6x | 3.0x | 9.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 3.0x | 30.1x | 65.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 18.0x | 26.1x | 45.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 14.8x | 15.5x | 16.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 217 | 217 | 217 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,202 | 3,371 | 3,539 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 585 | 585 | 585 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,788 | 3,956 | 4,125 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 499.2 | 499.2 | 499.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 7.59 | 7.92 | 8.26 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 7.59 | 7.92 | 8.26 | 5.39 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 40.8% | 47.0% | 53.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 300424 | 600106 | 927 | 2492 | 6117 | 548 | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,462 | 3,613 | 13,343 | 1,541 | 1,064 | 2,105 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 218 | 1,570 | 4,367 | 616 | 447 | 800 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 46 | 3,531 | 709 | 218 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (996) | (1,538) | (1,639) | (304) | (333) | (214) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (28) | 0 | (1,109) | (17) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,701 | 7,177 | 15,670 | 2,053 | 1,178 | 2,691 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 245.4 | 1,329.0 | 6,050.4 | 405.0 | 1,660.0 | 499.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 15.08 | 5.40 | 2.59 | 5.07 | 0.71 | 5.39 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 15.08 | 5.40 | 2.59 | 5.07 | 0.76 | 5.39 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | |