A.othaim markets

SASE:4001

사우디 아라비아 / 필수 소비재 / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail

개요

뉴스

5년 현금흐름할인(DCF) 반영된 매출

주가

9.78 SAR

적정가치

11.45 SAR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	9.0% - 8.0%	8.5%
Terminal Revenue Multiple	0.8x - 0.9x	0.9x
Fair Value	﷼10.69 - ﷼12.24	﷼11.45
Upside	9.3% - 25.1%	17.0%

7.2%

Revenue 5y CAGR

8.7%

5y Avg EBITDA Margin

66.5%

Unlevered FCF 5y CAGR

5-Year DCF Model: Revenue Exit

주가

9.78 SAR

적정가치

11.45 SAR

상승 여력 있음

17.0%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(SAR in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29

Revenue	10,716	18,629	12,138	12,769	14,308	15,205
% Growth	5.0%	73.8%	-34.8%	5.2%	12.0%	6.3%

EBITDA	674	1,025	1,090	1,166	1,393	1,512
% of Revenue	6.3%	5.5%	9.0%	9.1%	9.7%	9.9%

지원하는 계산법

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(SAR in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29

EBITDA		1,025	1,090	1,166	1,393	1,512
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(336)	(520)	(550)	(649)	(696)

EBIT		689	570	617	745	816
Pro forma Taxes		(76)	(63)	(68)	(82)	(90)
NOPAT	405	613	507	549	663	726

Capital Expenditures	(592)	(373)	(474)	(430)	(408)	(388)
NWC Investment	57	875	(718)	70	170	99
(+) D&A	219	336	520	550	649	696

Free Cash Flow	88	1,451	(165)	738	1,073	1,133
% Growth		1541%	NM	NM	45%	6%

로딩 에러

A.othaim markets

SASE:4001

사우디 아라비아 / 필수 소비재 / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail

5년 현금흐름할인(DCF) 반영된 매출