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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 5.0x - 5.5x | 5.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 5.0x - 5.5x | 5.2x |
| Fair Value | €1.09 - €1.18 | €1.13 |
| Upside | 19.9% - 30.5% | 25.2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Binhai Investment Company Limited | 2886 | SEHK:2886 |
| Xinjiang Haoyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. | 2700 | SZSE:002700 |
| Xinjiang East Universe Gas Co.Ltd. | 603706 | SHSE:603706 |
| China Gas Holdings Limited | 384 | SEHK:384 |
| Shaanxi Provincial Natural Gas Co.,Ltd | 2267 | SZSE:002267 |
| Kunlun Energy Company Limited | CTJ1 | DB:CTJ1 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2886 | 2700 | 603706 | 384 | 2267 | CTJ1 | ||
| SEHK:2886 | SZSE:002700 | SHSE:603706 | SEHK:384 | SZSE:002267 | DB:CTJ1 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 8.0% | 11.8% | 22.3% | -10.5% | 1.9% | 13.5% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -9.5% | 28.0% | 27.4% | -24.4% | 9.6% | 11.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -20.4% | -11.2% | 52.4% | 17.7% | 104.3% | -1.3% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 9.3% | 14.1% | 18.1% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 8.1% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 6.8% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 6.6% | 16.7% | 20.3% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.4% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.6% | 13.6% | 22.1% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 6.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.71x | 5.13x | 2.25x | 0.94x | 1.30x | 0.27x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.2x | 31.2x | 6.4x | 8.9x | 7.6x | 3.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.7x | 37.6x | 10.2x | 13.2x | 11.7x | 4.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 10.2x | 11.7x | 37.6x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 3.4x | 3.8x | 4.2x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 5.0x | 5.2x | 5.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 11,978 | 11,978 | 11,978 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 59,334 | 62,457 | 65,580 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 12,115 | 12,115 | 12,115 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 71,449 | 74,572 | 77,695 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 8,658.8 | 8,658.8 | 8,658.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.25 | 8.61 | 8.97 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/EUR | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1.14 | 0.91 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 16.0% | 21.0% | 26.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2886 | 2700 | 603706 | 384 | 2267 | CTJ1 | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,389 | 3,511 | 2,850 | 75,704 | 11,171 | 49,501 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 385 | 478 | 818 | 9,232 | 890 | 45,092 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 322 | 0 | 71 | 22,758 | 565 | 14,988 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,342) | (1) | (161) | (60,771) | (3,306) | (24,279) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (82) | (6) | (123) | (7,042) | (301) | (23,686) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | (144) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,527 | 3,983 | 3,454 | 39,880 | 9,019 | 61,616 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,375.9 | 413.6 | 189.4 | 5,448.2 | 1,112.1 | 8,658.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1.11 | 9.63 | 18.24 | 7.32 | 8.11 | 7.12 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.86 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.11 | 9.63 | 18.24 | 7.32 | 8.11 | 0.91 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | CNY | CNY | HKD | CNY | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.86 | |