Alpek SAB de CV

DB:27A

멕시코 / 자재 / 화학

개요

뉴스

10년 현금흐름할인(DCF) 반영된 EBITDA

주가

0.52 EUR

적정가치

0.76 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	13.8% - 12.8%	13.3%
Terminal EBITDA Multiple	4.2x - 6.2x	5.2x
Fair Value	€0.60 - €0.93	€0.76
Upside	15.3% - 79.2%	46.1%

1.7%

Revenue 10y CAGR

10.5%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

4.6%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: EBITDA Exit

주가

0.52 EUR

적정가치

0.76 EUR

상승 여력 있음

46.1%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(MXN in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	137,409	147,782	158,969	161,033	162,637	162,637	162,637	162,637	162,637	162,637	162,637
% Growth	-0.5%	7.5%	7.6%	1.3%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

EBITDA	10,235	12,997	14,258	14,826	18,151	18,151	18,151	18,151	18,151	18,151	18,151
% of Revenue	7.4%	8.8%	9.0%	9.2%	11.2%	11.2%	11.2%	11.2%	11.2%	11.2%	11.2%

지원하는 계산법

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(MXN in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

EBITDA		12,997	14,258	14,826	18,151	18,151	18,151	18,151	18,151	18,151	18,151
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(3,940)	(4,196)	(5,158)	(6,212)	(7,266)	(7,266)	(7,266)	(7,266)	(7,266)	(7,266)

EBIT		9,057	10,062	9,668	11,939	10,885	10,885	10,885	10,885	10,885	10,885
Pro forma Taxes		(2,355)	(2,616)	(2,514)	(3,104)	(2,830)	(2,830)	(2,830)	(2,830)	(2,830)	(2,830)
NOPAT	4,867	6,702	7,446	7,154	8,835	8,055	8,055	8,055	8,055	8,055	8,055

Capital Expenditures	(2,016)	(3,059)	(4,917)	(5,354)	(4,883)	(5,051)	(5,051)	(4,995)	(4,995)	(4,995)	(4,995)
NWC Investment	85	(1,178)	(1,271)	(235)	(182)	0	0	0	0	0	0
(+) D&A	3,658	3,940	4,196	5,158	6,212	7,266	7,266	7,266	7,266	7,266	7,266

Free Cash Flow	6,594	6,405	5,454	6,724	9,982	10,270	10,270	10,326	10,326	10,326	10,326
% Growth		-3%	-15%	23%	48%	3%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%

로딩 에러

Alpek SAB de CV

DB:27A

멕시코 / 자재 / 화학

10년 현금흐름할인(DCF) 반영된 EBITDA