3월17일 (로이터) - 다음은 연방준비제도가 16일(현지시간) 발표한 미국 경제 전
망치입니다.
(All figures Q4 over Q4, except jobless rate, which is Q4 average, and all f
igures in percent)
MEDIAN VIEW OF APPROPRIATE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (in percent)
MARCH DEC SEPT JUNE MARCH
End-2016 0.875 1.375 1.375 1.625 1.875
End-2017 1.875 2.375 2.625 2.875 3.125
End-2018 3.000 3.250 3.375 N/A N/A
Longer-run 3.250 3.500 3.500 3.750 3.750
MEDIAN
Real GDP 2016 2017 2018 Longer Run
March 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
Dec 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0
Unemployment
March 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.8
Dec 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9
PCE Price Index
March 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.0
Dec 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.0
Core PCE index
March 1.6 1.8 2.0 N/A
Dec 1.6 1.9 2.0 N/A
CENTRAL TENDENCY FORECASTS
Real GDP 2016 2017 2018 Longer Run
March 2.1 to 2.3 2.0 to 2.3 1.8 to 2.1 1.8 to 2.1
Dec 2.3 to 2.5 2.0 to 2.3 1.8 to 2.2 1.8 to 2.2
Unemployment
March 4.6 to 4.8 4.5 to 4.7 4.5 to 5.0 4.7 to 5.0
Dec 4.6 to 4.8 4.6 to 4.8 4.6 to 5.0 4.8 to 5.0
PCE Price Index
March 1.0 to 1.6 1.7 to 2.0 1.9 to 2.0 2.0
Dec 1.2 to 1.7 1.8 to 2.0 1.9 to 2.0 2.0
Core PCE index
March 1.4 to 1.7 1.7 to 2.0 1.9-2.0 N/A
Dec 1.5 to 1.7 1.7 to 2.0 1.9-2.0 N/A
Notes:
N/A-not available
Prior forecasts were released on Dec. 16, 2015.
The U.S. central bank has said the longer-run projections for growth and unemplo
yment may be interpreted as estimates of rates that appear sustainable in the lo
ng run.
The long-run inflation projection may be interpreted as the rate Fed officials s
ee as consistent with their dual objectives of maximum sustainable employment an
d price stability.
(jinwon.lee.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)